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Euroleague Tips with Previews – Round 10 – 21/11/2019

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Zalgiris – Crvena Zvezda

Two teams with three-game losing streaks will battle to get back on the winning track when Zalgiris Kaunas (3-6) hosts Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade (2-7) on Thursday of Round 10. Earlier in this double-feature week, Zalgiris fell to Panathinaikos OPAP Athens at home by a single point, 85-86, while Zvezda was defeated in Berlin by ALBA, 93-80. The win will be a breath of fresh air for whichever manages to come out on top from this duel.

Zalgiris has already lost four games at home this season, and the team will have to play hard to reverse the situation. Fortunately for the hosts, Zvezda has only won two games, both at home, and is still looking for its first road triumph. Zalgiris holds a small edge in the total calculation of points for and against, but Zalgiris will have to watch out for an aggressive defense that has Zvezda swiping 7.7 steals per game, second best in the league. Zalgiris, currently at the bottom of the rankings in steals and blocks, will want to try to match that intensity on defense. With a little bit more ‘D’ and the support of the hot fans at Zalgirio Arena, Zalgiris has a good opporunity to get back on a winning path.

With six losses in the last seven games, Zvezda needs a win badly. It’s never easy to triumph in Kaunas, but the numbers say that the guests could have a solid chance to steal a win. Zvezda has a small edge on Zalgiris in several statistics, especially on defense, but has lower shooting percentages from all ranges. Zvezda will be missing Stratos Perperoglou and James Gist, two of its best contributors, but if Derrick Brown, who returned against ALBA this week, gets up to speed soon, the guests could have a good tool to try to return home with the win.

basketball prediction Tip: 1 (-9.5) at 1.86 with bet365
(Price correct at 21/11/2019, 09:50 CET, could have changed)

ALBA Berlin – Olympiacos

Two teams with identical records but different trends face off on Thursday when ALBA Berlin (3-6) welcomes Olympiacos Piraeus (3-6) to the German capital. After dropping six straight games, ALBA seems to have found its pace with two wins in a row, the last one on Tuesday at home against Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade. All this despite having its two playmakers, Peyton Siva and Stefan Peno, injured. Olympiacos is still struggling with many changes in the roster, having lost five of its last seven games, including the last one at FC Bayern Munich. The Reds will try to put an end to their week in Germany with a new victory.

Strangely enough, ALBA has seemed to found its rhythm with both playmakers injured. The entire team has stepped up, and the hosts will look to keep that up against a team that has not found consistency yet this season, giving a chance for ALBA to equal its club record with a third consecutive win. ALBA averages 11 points more than Olympiacos, so we can expect the hosts deliver offense in spades. Defense will have to be the key for them, especially against Nikola Milutinov, considering that a new injury, to center Johannes Thiemann, will keep ALBA short-handed. Trying to force Olympiacos to shoot from beyond the arc, where the guests make a league-low 30.1% of their attempts, is one way for ALBA to win.

Olympiacos had not been in such a dire situation for many seasons, but the Reds retain the character and more than a few players that can get them out of the current situation. On paper, ALBA is more dangerous in offense and has better overall numbers than Olympiacos. Defense will be the key for the guests, as they will have to try to stop the ALBA shooters from running and taking the open shots. Look for them to concentrate on going inside to Milutinov and Printezis for points. The rest of the Reds will need to get their running shoes on, because even when not fastbreaking, ALBA moves the ball and its scorers quickly at all times. Keeping up with them is essential to having a chance to pull of a road win.

basketball prediction Tip: Over 163.5 at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 21/11/2019, 09:50 CET, could have changed)

Milano – Anadolu Efes

At least a share of first place is up for grabs when league leaders AX Armani Exchange Milan (7-2) and visiting Anadolu Efes Istanbul (7-2) square off in the fashion capital on Thursday. The winner will share first place at game’s end with either CSKA Moscow or FC Barcelona, who both play on Friday. Efes is looking for its fourth consecutive victory, having won its last two away from Istanbul.

Both teams are without signature centers, as Milan has been missing Arturas Gudaitis and Bryant Dunston did not make the trip with Efes. The battle on the boards will be up for grabs, in that case, and in Milan’s case, defense of the rim will be key. Efes ranks second in the EuroLeague with 57.0% efficiency on two-pointers, and without Gudaitis to intimidate, others will have to step in. Kaleb Tarczewski and Paul Biligha are the next biggest bodies, and neither played much in Tuesday’s win over Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv, but they might be called on to step up against Efes.

The visitors’ superfly backcourt of Micic and Shane Larkin is all the more important in the absence of Dunston. They rank among the EuroLeague top seven scorers, but their defense on the perimeter might be more of a key on Thursday. Milan is the runaway EuroLeague leader in three-point shooting efficiency, making 44.5% from the arc, and when that happens at home, the hosts will be hard to beat. Expect Efes to balance its own attack by going to the rim as well as almost any EuroLeague team so far and forcing Milan to defend every inch of the court.

basketball prediction Tip: 1 (-2.5) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 21/11/2019, 09:50 CET, could have changed)

Valencia – Khimki

A classic 7DAYS EuroCup duel makes its jump to the big stage as Valencia Basket (3-6) welcomes Khimki Moscow Region (6-3) to Spain on Thursday. After a struggling start, Valencia has managed to win three of its last four games, the last two in a row, the last one at home against Zenit St Petersburg in a thriller. Khimki seems much more consistent but comes off a blowout loss at Real Madrid and will look to get back on the winning track in its second game of the week in Spain.

Valencia is on a roll after a rough start, and will want to keep the party going at home. The first worry that coach Jaume Ponsarnau will have is Shved, of course. But Khimki is so much more than him. The guests boast the third-best offense in the league and basically outperform Valencia on all fronts except for steals. Valencia will have to look again for the collective effort and do many things right to defeat one of the top teams in the competition. La Fonteta will be there giving the extra push, the rest is up to Valencia and the focus that it brings to the game.

After a brilliant start, Khimki has dropped two of its last four games, and that is a wakeup call not to take any games in the EuroLeague for granted. Going into the game Khimki has the upper hand in virtually every aspect of the game, so the main trio of Shved, Jonas Jerebko and Devin Booker will try to remain the solid pillar they have been for Khimki. As of now, Khimki gives up more points per game than Valencia, but the hosts have the second-weakest numbers from beyond the arc in the league, so the guests will probably try to exploit that.

basketball prediction Tip: 1 at 2.50 with bet365
(Price correct at 21/11/2019, 09:50 CET, could have changed)

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News Source: Euroleague.net
Basketball tips: Livetipster


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* Odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change.

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Euroleague Tips with Previews – Round 29 – Thursday

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CSKA Moscow – ALBA Berlin

Back in-form CSKA Moscow will look to keep its momentum going when it hosts ALBA Berlin on Thursday. After dropping three of four, CSKA won twice last week, including a 31-point thumping of Panathinaikos in Athens. Every win is crucial for the champs, who are fighting for homecourt advantage in the playoffs. ALBA, which has lost three in a row, could see its playoff hopes formally put to an end if it losses and other results go the other way.

CSKA always does a great job of picking apart the opponents’ weaknesses and against ALBA it surely knows that by moving the ball and getting penetration or passing to the big men inside it will get great looks against ALBA, which allows a league-high 57.6% of two-point shots against opponents. Strong play from the CSKA bigs could decide this game.

While three-point shooting will be important to this game – the teams are ranked third (ALBA, 39.6%) and fourth (CSKA, 39.2%) in the league in three-point accuracy, rebounding for ALBA will be paramount. CSKA leads the league in rebounding (37.8 rpg.) and its league-best 26.0 defensive rebounds per game ignite many fast breaks. ALBA is a strong offensive rebounding team (fourth, 11.4 prpg.) and will need to be a factor there to avoid CSKA getting easy baskets in transition.

basketball prediction Tip: Over 167.5 at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 12/03/2020, 10:50 CET, subject to change)

Anadolu Efes – Valencia

A host with only first place left to clinch faces a visitor struggling for survival when Efes (24-4) welcomes Valencia (12-16) to Istanbul on Thursday. Efes assured itself home-court advantage in the playoffs last Friday when Shane Larkin returned to MVP form in a 91-79 win over Olympiacos Piraeus. Valencia (12-16) suffered its fourth straight loss, 81-83 in heartbreaking fashion to AX Armani Exchange Milan on a game-winning three-pointer to beat the buzzer in overtime. Valencia now shares ninth place just four rounds after having held seventh place alone.

It’s easy to say give the ball to Larkin when he has rained 10 triples and more than 4 points in two separate games this season. But Efes will have to be wary of some things Valencia does well, like offensive rebounds, drawing fouls, making free throws and assist-to-turnover rate, in all of which the visitors rank among the top five in the league. If Efes keeps up an aggressive pace, however, its endless bench could well make the difference.

The visitors would do well to grind it out, slow the game, and somehow keep both Larkin and Micic to a minimum of shots. They have a lot to do with Efes ranking first in both two- and three-point accuracy, so Valencia’s defenders will likely risk trying to turn off the spigot at its source. Not many defenses have had luck with that, but disrupting the perimeter play of Efes would change the dynamic of the game, and that’s not a bad way to try to beat the league leaders.

basketball prediction Tip: 1 (-11.0) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 12/03/2020, 10:50 CET, subject to change)

Maccabi – Baskonia

Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv will look to rebound from a loss in Belgrade when it meets red-hot KIROLBET Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz. Maccabi had won five in a row before its loss to Crvena Zvezda and is neck-and-neck with CSKA Moscow for fourth place, which is worth homecourt advantage in the playoffs. Baskonia has won three in a row to join a heated playoff race and at 12-16 in now one of five teams that is one win outside the playoff zone.

The test of rebounding in the game will be when Baskonia misses shots. Coach Ivanovic’s men are third in the league in offensive rebounds (11.5 orpg.) and Maccabi is second in defensive boards (25.7 drpg.). If Baskonia can make noise on the offensive glass and get a few extra second-chance baskets, it could go a long way. But if Maccabi locks down the defensive boards and turns them into transition points, the Israeli champs will be in pole position.

It is as important as ever for Baskonia to take good care of the ball against Maccabi. Baskonia has committed the second-most turnovers in the league (14.3 TOpg.), while Maccabi has taken more steals than any other team (7.8 spg.). There are many players on the Maccabi defense with quick hands and Baskonia must rise to the challenge to keep them at bay.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 (+8.0) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 12/03/2020, 10:50 CET, subject to change)

Real Madrid – Crvena Zvezda

Two teams with different goals in mind will meet in Round 29 when Real Madrid (22-6) hosts Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade (11-17). Real has clinched a playoff berth and has won seven straight games, including last week against ASVEL at home. The hosts are looking to get the home-court advantage for the next phase. On the other side, Zvezda managed to win again last week after losing eight of its previous nine games. The Serbian champs defeated red-hot Maccabi at home to remain in the playoff hunt.

The hosts average almost 10 points more per game than the visitors,  are on a winning run and still fighting for a tangible goal. It’s hard to deny that going into the game, Real is the favorite. Los Blancos have better numbers on all fronts and that fact is summed up with a difference of average PIR of 102.6 vs. 77.5 in favor of Real. However, Zvezda is still looking for a playoff ticket and the last home win against such a solid team as Maccabi at this point could give the guests a boost of morale that could be dangerous for the hosts to underestimate.

Zvezda will land in Madrid with a lot of things at stake. It has everything to win… and everything to lose also. One could expect that the visitors can drop this game in the Spanish capital, but at this moment, Zvezda is still playing for a playoff ticket so winning in Madrid has become almost mandatory. It won’t be easy because Real is on a roll and is also playing for a specific goal. The visitors will have to come into the game pumped by the last win against Maccabi and with the idea to steal an upset that would put them in a good position to fight for one of the last places in the next phase.

basketball prediction Tip: Over 159.0 at 1.90 with bet365

(Price correct at 12/03/2020, 10:50 CET, subject to change)

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News Source: Euroleague.net
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Euroleague Tips with Previews – Round 28 – Friday

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Khimki – Fenerbahce

Two teams in the thick of the playoffs race will face each other on Friday when Khimki Moscow Region (12-15) hosts Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul (13-14) for Round 28. After having won three in a row, Khimki’s streak came to a halt earlier this week at Zalgiris, while Fener won at home against Zvezda and finally entered the playoff positions.

Going into the game, Khimki’s best option will probably be to unleash its better offense. Fenerbahce is also the worst team of the league under the boards, so if the hosts manage to control those defensive rebounds and run on offense, thanks to their second-best assists numbers in the league, they could have solid options to take this win.

Fenerbahce finally overcame the mental obstacle of being outside of the playoffs zone, and seems to be getting up to speed. Even if Khimki shows better numbers on almost all aspects, the biggest weapon for the guests will be a strong mentality that is just getting stronger week after week and, of course, the second-best three-point shooting in the league.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 at 2.20 with bet365
(Price correct at 06/03/2020, 10:05 CET, subject to change)

Anadolu Efes – Olympiacos

A classic EuroLeague matchup will live a new edition on Friday when league leader Anadolu Efes Istanbul (23-4) welcomes Olympiacos Piraeus (12-15) for Round 28. Efes comes off a rare loss earlier in the week at Maccabi that snapped its 11-game winning streak. The hosts will be facing the Reds, who land in Turkey fresh off a close win at home in the Greek derby against Panathinaikos earlier this week.

It’s kind of ironic that Efes suffered its first loss in 12 rounds just when it had its full roster available again. The hosts are the second-best offensive team in the league, and this loss shows that they are human after all, but it could also be a wake-up call just at the right time. Efes is already in the playoffs, but a win in this game combined with either a Maccabi or CSKA Moscow loss, would secure home-court advantage for the hosts in the next phase.

Olympiacos is having one of the most irregular seasons of the last decade, and having Vassilis Spanoulis and Nikola Milutinov sidelined does not help, either, However, the Reds have won three of their last four games and they are still pushing hard to make the playoffs in a tough competition. On paper, Efes is basically better at everything this season, but Olympiacos is famous for beating the odds, and the fact that they play on the road with the chance to avenge the home loss earlier this season just adds to the motivation.

basketball prediction Tip: Over 158.5 at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 06/03/2020, 10:05 CET, subject to change)

Crvena Zvezda – Maccabi

Playoffs hopeful Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade (10-17) will welcome Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv (19-8), a team that just punched its postseason ticket, on Friday for Round 28 of this double-feature week. The hosts are going through a rough patch, having lost eight of their last nine games, including a close one at Fenerbahce earlier this week, 66-63. On the other hand, Maccabi comes from a thrilling home win over Efes, 77-75, that increased its winning streak to five games and secured the club a playoff berth for the first time since 2015.

The hosts need to get out of the dark zone they are in right now. A motivated and happy team like Maccabi might not be the best option to do that, but Zvezda plays at home and that is always a big factor in any game. Maccabi does not have many weak points, but its free-throw percentage is the third-worst in the league, so stepping up on defense and then sending the guests to the line could work in Zvezda’s favor for this game.

Maccabi is in a good place right now. The team is playing well, the wins keep coming in and the playoffs are a reality once more after four seasons. Now it’s just a matter to keep pushing in order to earn home-court advantage. Maccabi has the upper hand in this game, especially in offense, and also with the second-best numbers of the league under the boards. Zvezda also has the worst percentage in two-pointers, so paying attention to defense could bring a big payoff to the guests.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 (-4.0) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 06/03/2020, 10:05 CET, subject to change)

Barcelona – Bayern

Two teams in opposite places will face each other on Friday as already qualified FC Barcelona (21-6) welcomes FC Bayern Munich (8-19) for Round 28. Barca is one of the hottest teams in the league, with eight consecutive wins, including on Wednesday against another German team, ALBA. The hosts also have the February MVP, Nikola Mirotic, on a roll. Bayern, on the other hand, has lost 11 of its last 13 games, including at home to Baskonia earlier this week, and at risk of soon being mathematically ruled out of the playoffs race.

It all looks bright for Barca going into this game. The hosts are facing the second-worst offense in the league, and the second-worst team in rebounds per game. All in all, Barcelona averages a PIR of 20 more than Bayern per game, plus the hosts are playing well and winning games like they had not done for quite a few seasons now. If Barca manages to execute its game plan, it should be able to add another win and get closer to home-court advantage in the playoffs.

Bayern is in a rough moment of the season and the fact that it plays on the road against one of the hottest teams does not help. Barca is a talented team with a deep bench, so Bayern will have to clench its teeth from tip-off and try to start building a win through defense. Expect the visitors to base their game on going inside to Greg Monroe and Danilo Barthel, and hope that creates space for shooters like Petteri Koponen, who will be playing on his former home floor.

basketball prediction Tip: Over 159.5 at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 06/03/2020, 10:05 CET, subject to change)

Baskonia – ALBA Berlin

Two teams still in the race for the playoffs will square off on Friday when KIROLBET Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (11-16) welcomes ALBA Berlin (9-18) in Round 28. Baskonia has won three of its last four games, including the last road win at Bayern, and seems to be making a big push towards the postseason spots. ALBA has lost three of its last four games and needs to get back to the winning track if it wants to retain some options.

Baskonia has the worst offense in the league and plays against the fourth-best. That could seem a tall order for the hosts, but these teams are in opposite trends and Baskonia stands at the better end of those. Baskonia is also the EuroLeague team averaging the least assists per game, while ALBA is third, so this will be a clash of styles. If Baskonia manages to put its third-ranked defense at the top of its priority list against an opponent that gives up the most points this season, the hosts could be on their way to their fourth win in five games.

ALBA just fell short of defeating Barcelona in Berlin, and has now lost three of its last four games. Against Baskonia it will be a duel of opposite styles. ALBA will have to by-pass the tough defense of the hosts in order to display its fun-to-watch offense. If those league-best assists flow and those threes fall in the basket (third best numbers in the league for ALBA), the guests could upset Baskonia for a second time this season, even if missing some players like Peyton Siva.

basketball prediction Tip: 1 (-5.5) at 1.95 with bet365
(Price correct at 06/03/2020, 10:05 CET, subject to change)

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News Source: Euroleague.net
Basketball tips: Livetipster


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